搜索结果: 1-12 共查到“地球物理学 ensemble”相关记录12条 . 查询时间(0.109 秒)
Ensemble Forecasting of Volcanic Emissions in Hawai’i
air quality forecasting ensemble modeling dispersion modeling
2015/8/18
Deterministic model forecasts do not convey to the end users the forecast uncertainty the models possess as a result of physics parameterizations, simplifications in model representation of physical p...
Physical controls on the scale-dependence of ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion
Physical controls the scale-dependence ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion
2010/10/21
The accuracy of ensemble streamflow forecasts (ESFs) is impacted by the propagation of uncertainty associated with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) through the physical processes occurring...
A comparison of assimilation results from the ensemble Kalman Filter and a reduced-rank extended Kalman Filter
assimilation results ensemble Kalman Filter reduced-rank extended Kalman Filter
2009/11/12
The goal of this study is to compare the performances of the ensemble Kalman filter and a reduced-rank extended Kalman filter when applied to different dynamic regimes. Data assimilation experiments a...
Response of a global atmospheric circulation model to spatio-temporal stochastic forcing:ensemble statistics
global atmospheric circulation model spatio-temporal stochastic forcing ensemble statistics
2009/11/12
The response of a simplified global atmospheric circulation model (PUMA) to spatiotemporal stochastic forcing is analyzed using the statistical measures originally developed for ensemble forecast eval...
Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score
model quality ensemble deficiencies ensemble based probabilistic forecasts Brier score
2009/11/11
The relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies, on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts, is investigated from a set of idealized experiments. Data are generated ac...
Local polynomial method for ensemble forecast of time series
Local polynomial method ensemble forecast time series
2009/11/9
We present a nonparametric approach based on local polynomial regression for ensemble forecast of time series. The state space is first reconstructed by embedding the univariate time series of the res...
Growth of finite errors in ensemble prediction
Growth of finite errors ensemble prediction
2009/11/9
We study the predictability of chaotic conservative and dissipative maps in the context of ensemble prediction. Finite-size perturbations around a reference trajectory are evolved under the full nonli...
Initial state perturbations in ensemble forecasting
Initial state perturbations ensemble forecasting
2009/11/2
Due to the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics, numerical weather prediction systems are sensitive to errors in the initial conditions. To estimate the forecast uncertainty, forecast centres produc...
Comparison between Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and PSAS in the NASA finite volume GCM–perfect model experiments
Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter PSAS NASA finite volume GCM–perfect model
2009/11/2
This paper compares the performance of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) with the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) under a perfect model scenario. PSAS is a 3D-Var as...
Spatiotemporal characterization of Ensemble Prediction Systems–the Mean-Variance of Logarithms (MVL) diagram
Spatiotemporal characterization Ensemble Prediction Systems MVL diagram
2009/10/30
We present a novel approach to characterize and graphically represent the spatiotemporal evolution of ensembles using a simple diagram. To this aim we analyze the fluctuations obtained as differences ...
The diffuse ensemble filter
diffuse ensemble filter
2009/10/30
A new class of ensemble filters, called the Diffuse Ensemble Filter (DEnF), is proposed in this paper. The DEnF assumes that the forecast errors orthogonal to the first guess ensemble are uncorrelated...
Probability Distributions of CO2-induced Global Warming as Inferred Directly from Multimodel Ensemble Simulations
climate change global warming probability distribution
2009/6/9
Analytical, purely model-based probability distributions are derived for the instantaneous global mean warming resulting from a gradual doubling of CO2 (TCR = transient climate response) and for the e...